Quora: 中国技术会超过美国技术吗？

Will China’s technology surpass America’s?

中国的技术会超过美国吗？

【美版知乎quora问答】

Rod L’Huillier, Lived and studied in China for 6 years
Answered Fri
Will China’s technology surpass America’s?
It depends in what area and to consider that culturally these countries are very different.
It’s likely that China will overtake the US in the application of technology in society. This is already evident in social media, social sharing, and ride sharing simply due to the disposition culturally and the sheer scale of the market.

这取决于你什么领域的技术

中国的社交应用技术可能会超过美国。社交媒体、社会共享、共享单车已经证明，市场规模庞大。

Social media
Already China has 791 million internet users vs 291 million in the US. China will naturally become more advanced in this area, but will anyone outside of China want to use that technology, I’m not sure. Regardless, even if they don’t go global, they can still have a larger user base, and within one market, one culture and one jurisdiction that favors them enormously. Facebook, etc, has to operate across jurisdictions and cross cultures making maintaining/gaining similar market scale difficult in comparison.

社交媒体

中国网民人数7.91亿，美国网民人数为2.91亿。显然，中国在社交媒体这一领域上自然更具优势，不确定外国人是否会使用中国社交媒体。无论如何，即使并不走向全球，它们仍可以有庞大的用户基础，在单一市场、单一文化和单一司法管辖之内，对他们极其有利。相反，脸书等需要跨越不同的司法权和文化，以维持/获得相当的市场规模。

I would also argue that WeChat, AliPay, Taobao, as just three examples, are more intuitive and more advanced that western counterparts.
So my personal opinion is that China will win the implementation race, but maybe not the innovation race.

微信、支付宝、淘宝，仅这三个例子，就比西方同类产品更方便使用，更先进。

我个人认为，中国会赢得执行力的竞争，但不是创新竞争。

Space
China does well, but considering most of the major problems are already solved and that knowledge is freely available, then it’s only money and time, trial and effort.
I’m sure China, India, and the US will each make substantial leaps in that area. There’s unlikely to be a number one.
This year NASA plans to land on Mars, and perhaps even Space X will get close too. Both events likely to kick renewed interest in space with a busy schedule of events from all space countries in the next decade.

空间技术

中国空间技术表现不俗。大部分问题已经解决，知识可以免费获取，剩下的是金钱、时间、以及尝试的问题了。

中国、印度和美国会在这一领域各自取得实质性进展，谁会第一，很难说。

今年，美国宇航局计划登陆火星，就连太空探索科技公司（Space X）也跃跃欲试。未来10年，这可能重新激起人们对太空的兴趣。

Transport systems
China appears to be streaking ahead of everyone with it’s HSR. But only in scale. Technology leaps in the coming years will make HSR look dated, yet it will be affordable at scale and perhaps China will be quite successful in the global mass transit developments.
As for technology, Japan, Germany and the US will be the ones to watch. Branson and Elon Musk being the first ones to keep an eye on.

交通系统

中国高铁独步全球。不过只是规模无人能比。未来几年的技术飞跃，会让高铁过时。在全球范围来看，公共交通的发展，中国或许会相当成功。

技术方面，日本、德国和美国将成为关注焦点。布兰森和伊隆·马斯克将成为第一批被关注的对象。

（注：布兰森=维珍创始人；伊隆·马斯克=SpaceX CEO）

China will have a homegrown aircraft soon, one of the few countries to do such. Yet, it will have to make a huge leap in engine development/propulsion systems to challenge the US, EU, UK, or Russia.
That leap will be hypersonic I’m sure. The US seems to have the lead on hypersonic flight, but maybe not, Beijing Power Machinery Research Institute, Chinese Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, and the Chinese Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation are all planning test flights between 2020–30.
Boeing’s vision for hypersonic passenger flight looks so cool!

中国很快会出现国产飞机，是少数能自己造大飞机的国家之一。不过发动机和动力系统方面需要突飞猛进的发展，以挑战美国、欧盟、英国、或俄罗斯。

发展方向应当是高超音速方面的。美国似乎已经在高超音速飞机上领先。北京动力机械研究所、中国航天科技集团、中国航天科工集团有限公司，这三家公司研发的飞机都计划在2020~2030年期间试飞。

波音公司对高超音速客机的设想看起来太酷了!

But another example where the US can leap ahead again, since 2003 NASA has been working on computer controlled morphing body structures meaning the plane can literally change shape in flight…. my head spins….

另一个美国能再次取得飞跃的例子，自2003年起，美国宇航局一直致力于计算机控制的组织结构变形，即飞机能在飞行过程中改变形状……厉害啦

Cloning and Gene editing
Chinese scientists have a free pass compared to their colleagues in other countries who are restricted or slowed by regulatory process. Some argue that China has taken the lead due to relaxed regulations, but I’m not sure. I think many in the US would house their research until the right time as releasing it too early could lead to misinformed debate leading to over-regulation.

克隆和基因编辑

和其他国家相比，中国科学家已经获得了免费入场券。很多人认为，由于政策宽松，中国已经领先了。我认为，时机不成熟之前，美国很多人会隐藏他们的研究，发布过早可能会导致误导性辩论，引起过度监管。

Whilst ViaGen and Sooam Biotech have been cloning pets commercially for years, the breakthrough in primate cloning by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai is a leap, or is it? Or just luck. And why, do we want to clone humans?
Will China’s technology surpass America’s? Who cares, in the end we are all likely to be the beneficiaries.
Perhaps the better question to ask, as people, do we want it? What really makes our lives better?
I’d rather be this guy..

尽管美国ViaGen和韩国秀岩生命工学研究院多年来一直进行商业克隆宠物，中科院和上海神经科学研究院则在灵长类克隆方面取得巨大进展，不是吗？或许只是运气。为什么要这么做，难道想克隆人类？

中国技术会超越美国吗？管它呢。最终我们都可能成为受益者。或许应该这样问：什么技术能让我们过得更好？

Robin Daverman, World traveler
Answered Thu
Will China’s technology surpass America’s?
A2A. It depends.
If you look at the Nobel Prize winners in Physics

看情况。看看有多少位诺贝尔物理学奖得主。

you can see that the US really started dominating after WWII. Before WWII, Europe was more successful in basic research.
So what happened after WWII? Well, the US government set up two agencies to provide research funding and laboratories to scientists. One is Department of Energy, which produced 115 Nobel laureates in Physics and Chemistry. https://science.energy.gov/about… The other in NIH, which produced 153 Nobel Laureates in Medicine and Chemistry. Nobel Laureates Mind you, the whole time, Europe has twice the population, and higher average education…

可以看出，美国在二战后真正主导科技，二战之前，欧洲的基础研究更成功。

二战后呢？美国政府设立了两个机构，为科学家提供研究资金和实验室。其中一个是美国能源部，出现了115个物理化学领域的诺贝尔得主。另一个是美国国立卫生研究院，产生了医药化学领域的153名诺贝尔奖得主。

请注意，期间，欧洲人口是（美国人口的）两倍，平均教育水平更高。

So you see the most important driver here for science and technology development? Funding.
The thing you have to keep in mind is that Technology doesn’t really belong to a country. It’s shared among all the people globally. You may get a first-mover advantage, but you also have to pay the first-mover cost too. You have to eat the cost of failures. It’s debatable which side of the equation is the bargain. Also, the scientific community has long enjoyed open global collaboration. Because it works. Figuring out Nature is hard enough. Figuring out Politics is impossible, because it’s neither logical nor rational.
How about if we just let all people with money chip in, if they so wish, and make HUMANS the winner?

你明白科技发展最重要的驱动力了吗？资金。

记住，技术并非真的属于某个国家。技术是全人类共享的。你或许获得了先发优势，但你也必须为先发优势付出代价。你必须吞下失败的代价。成本和代价哪个更经济还是未知数。而且科学界长期以来一直喜欢全球开放性合作。要搞清楚自然界太难了。搞清楚政治是不可能的，不仅不符合逻辑，也不理性。