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未来5年,印度经济能达到中国经济目前的水平吗?

2018-02-06 | 分类:经济 | 评论:3人

Will India’s economy be at the level China’s is at now in the next 5 years?

未来5年,印度经济能达到中国经济现在的水平吗?

【美版知乎quora问答】

Martin Andrews, Asian analyst.
Answered Wed
Questions like these have been popping up on Quora at a very fast rate, to all the Indians who ask these questions the only reasonable conclusion I can come up with is that Indians seriously underestimate China and the Chinese people’s capabilities.

这样的问题在Quora上不断出现。

那些提出此类问题的印度人,你们严重低估中国了,严重低估中国人的能力了。

China had perfected all the correct fundamentals for development, they have built world class infrastructure with a record spending on infrastructure that is the highest in the world, but the problem is that India needs to spend far more on infrastructure and it is not, this will hinder India’s growth substantially, Indian policy makers don’t seem to understand this.

中国投入巨资,完善了世界一流的基础设施。印度必须在基础设施上投入巨资,然而印度并未这样做,这将严重阻碍印度的发展,印度决策者似乎没明白这点。

China gave quality education at a massive scale to its citizens, the result is that even the rural areas in China rank at the OECD average (PISA) and Shanghai which is the best in China absolutely smashed the rest of the world in education, India came last in the PISA rankings and it opted out, this shouldn’t be the response for a country which wants to be a global superpower, Indian skilled labour is also low quality which is a result of bad educational policies and low standards and this will hamper India in a future where the world is moving towards high skilled labour.

中国为公民提供素质教育。结果就是,即使农村地区的学生,在国际学生评估项目 (PISA)也 榜上有名,在教育方面,上海教育水平超过了其他国家。印度排名垫底。这不是一个希望成为全球大国的国家的样子。

由于受教育程度不够,印度技术工人素质也很低,这将阻碍印度在未来世界中向高技术劳动力层次的转化。

Indians seem to be very proud of the fact that the 7.37% growth in GDP for 2018 is faster than China’s growth which is 6.9%, sure being proud is essential as well but one should also be pragmatic, what Indians don’t seem to quite comprehend is that since China’s GDP is much much larger than India’s it actually adds more value to its economy even though it grows “slower”.

印度2018年取得了7.37%的GDP增速,看到比中国6.9%的经济增速快,印度人的自豪感油然而生。对,值得骄傲,但人要务实点。印度人似乎不明白,即使中国经济增速“更慢”,考虑到中国GDP比印度高太多了,所以中国经济创造的价值更大。

Chinese GDP for 2017 is $12.25 trillion while the respective figure for India is $2.439 trillion the growth rate during this period for each economy was 6.9% and 6.7% respectively, that means that in absolute terms China added an incredible $1.7 trillion to its economy while India added $362 billion to its economy, in other words China added a bit more than x4 what India added to its economy.

2017年中国GDP是12.25万亿美元,印度GDP为2.439万亿美元。期间,两国的经济增长率分别为6.9%和6.7%。也就是说,绝对值上,中国经济增量为1.7万亿美元,印度则为3620亿美元。换句话讲,中国经济增量比印度经济增量多4倍。

My biggest worry is that India might be growing too slow to escape the middle income trap, there is a real danger that India might become stagnant in the middle income trap because it is not growing fast enough, case in point lets make a comparison to when China was where India is today and compare their respective growth rate:

我最担心的是,印度可能发展太慢,担心印度不可避免地陷入中等收入陷阱,
印度可能会陷入中等收入陷阱,这是一个真正的危险,
增速不够快。
举个例子,让我们来比较一下中国在今天印度(经济情况)的时期,两国各自的增长率:

Though both economies are comparable we can see that the growth rate exceeds 10% in China while in India it is much lower, I believe it is essential that India grows in excess of 10% at this stage or else it will really struggle to pull a vast amount of people out of poverty and might get stuck in the middle income trap which would be the worst nightmare for India.

两国经济具有可比性,然而中国经济增长率超过10%,印度增速慢很多。我认为关键是,在这一阶段印度增长率要超过10%,否则确实很难让穷人脱贫,而且会陷入中等收入陷阱,这对印度来说将是个噩梦。

India tried to do a rather unconventional economic strategy, that is jumping straight from agriculture to services while China was and is completing the standard economic strategy that all developed countries followed that is agriculture to manufacturing to services at a rapid rate, India is now joining the manufacturing bandwagon but it is probably too late for that now as the world is heading into automation.

印度尝试从农业型经济跳跃到服务型经济。而中国则一直且正完成发达国家遵循的标准经济战略,即快速从农业型经济到制造型再到服务型经济。印度现在加入了制造业行列,但可能为时已晚了,因为世界正走向自动化。

Since it is too late to follow the conventional development strategy India is really on its own to develop a country of 1 billion at a massive scale.
And no it certainly won’t surpass China in 5 years time because India’s GDP then would be $3.9 trillion and China’s? that would be $18.3 trillion and for reference point the US GDP would be $23.5 trillion.

太迟遵循传统发展战略,印度真的要依靠自己的力量来发展一个10亿人口的国家。

印度当然无法在5年内超过中国。5年后,印度GDP会是3.9万亿美元,而中国GDP将高达18.9万亿美元,作为参考,美国GDP将为23.5万亿美元。

 

Subbu Thenan, Loves to read Economics
Answered Wed
Let’s have Simple Math.
Today:
India’ s GDP – 2.2 trillion USD
China’s GDP – 11.2 trillion USD
If India grows on a average of 8%(may be i am too optimistic) in next 5 years and China grows at 5(may be i am too pessimistic) .
5 years later:
India’s GDP – Around 3.5 Trillion USD
China’s GDP – Around 14. 5 Trillion USD
Interestingly even with low growth China would have added more amount to GDP as India would have added to GDP.
So no way , India’s economy is not going to be at the level of China’s in next 5 years.

来做道简单的数学题:

现在:

印度GDP=2.2万亿美元,中国GDP=11.2万亿美元。如果印度以8%的速度发展(或许我太乐观了),中国保持5%(或许太悲观了)增速,那5年后——

印度GDP≈3.5万亿美元;中国GDP≈14.5万亿美元。

有趣的是,即使是在低增速的情况下,中国GDP增量也将更大。因此,印度经济不会在未来5年内达到中国目前的水平。

Problem with India is
1)Infrastructure and lack of quality education.
2)India has not yet come out of socialist clout that it has been embroiled for past 5–6 decades.
3)India has not gone full heartedly towards Globalisation.
4)Structural barriers like caste system makes it very difficult to overcome inefficient traditional business practices.

印度的问题在于:

1、基础设施、素质教育不到位
2、印度还未摆脱社会主义的影响,过去5~6年一直深陷其中。
3、印度并未完全致力于全球化。
4、诸如种姓制度等结构性障碍,使其很难克服效率低下的商业做法。

5) One of the youngest Nations with more than 50% population under age of 40, but these young youths don’t have the entrepreneurship vigor.
6) Added to this “Land” , If Government is not able acquire land for social programs then think of private corporations who needs to setup big industries, this is a very serious problem.Amendments to change that law was put down in 2015 after vigorous protests from Opposition and People.

5、超过一半的人口不到40岁,印度是最年轻的国家之一,但这些年轻人没有创业精神。

So , considering all these i wonder whether India will ever reach those heights in near term. May be after 20 years but definitely not now. This too considering all the above problems are somehow solved in next 5–8 years.
India is a nation of enormous potential but the social barriers hindering its fast growth.

考虑到以上问题,印度是否会在短期内达到中国目前的高度。20年后有可能,但绝对不是现在。这还是上述所有问题在未来5-8年里得到解决的情况下。

印度是一个潜力巨大的国家,但社会问题阻碍了印度的快速发展。

来源:Quora中文网(微信号/QQ号:),转载请注明出处和链接!

  • 评论:(3)

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  1. Fan xilin
    Post:2018/07/20 12:41:53

    It is impossible for India to overtake China in five years. This year’s GDP in China is $ 128401 billion Dollars.But India’s GDP this year is 24390 billion USD.China’s GDP is almost five times that of India. And GDP growth in the two countries is almost the same. So India can not surpass China in five years. 印度在五年以内超过中国是不可能的。今年中国的GDP是128401亿美元。但印度只有24390亿美元。中国的国内生产总值几乎是印度的五倍。但两国的GDP增速几乎一样。印度应该稍快一点。但总之,印度不可能在五年内经济方面超过中国。

    • yanglz
      Post:2018/07/30 14:46:43

      不是,他说的是五年达到中国现在的水平,那需要保持每年37%的复合增长率,哪怕是日本韩国当年在各自经济爆发的阶段,超过10%的年度增长也并不容易,更别说十几亿人口的印度,37%的增长率根本就是异想天开,更不要说连续保持五年,能够保持目前6.7%稳中有增就已经是不容易的了,所以这个五年五倍的问题就当是个美好的愿望吧。

  2. yanglz
    Post:2018/07/30 14:34:42

    啥,未来五年达到中国目前水平?那先算笔账,中国目前GDP是印度5倍,那么五年翻五倍,算下来每年符合增长率是37%左右,也就是说每一年要在前一年的基础上增加37%的GDP,这跟做梦没区别。相对现实一点假设的话,如果始终保持目前接近7%的增长率,要翻5倍大概要25年,即便是增加到8%,那也得20年以上,就算是每年增长10%,那也得连续保持18年才能达到目前中国的GDP规模。所以,竟然还会有人问出这种问题来,问之前也不拿笔算算,全靠想象。。。。。

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