当前位置:首页 > 军事 > 正文内容


2018-02-05 | 分类:军事 | 评论:15人

Why can’t we defeat China in an open war?




Dan Gall, worked at Canadian Armed Forces (1972-1997)
Answered Jan 24
China has a population of over 1 billion. They could potentially put 100 million men in the field and they also now have the production capability to equip them with modern weapons.
The US only has 350 million people, and might be able to manage 30 million in the military. Which means they would be outnumbered at least by three to one.



The US, even with 400 plus ships doesn’t have the capability to invade China. When the US invaded Okinawa in 1945 they used over 10,000 ships to protect the troops and supply them for two months and there were far fewer US troops as well. No navy has that capability any longer.


The Chinese modern weapons remove much of the advantage America has in quality and innovation, it simply cannot use firepower as it did in the Korean conflict to beat back the Chinese, the Chinese had just as much firepower now.


The US has 4300 nuclear weapons, but China has over 300. The Chinese ones are more than enough to take out most American population centres, while the Americans can also take out most Chinese ones, but a victory like that is not a victory at all, you get to claim you won from the ruins of your country.



Robert Sim, Studied in China, visits China on a regular basis.
Answered Jan 24
Economy. Like it or not, a good majority of the world’s manufactured products come from China. You fight with China, the global economy craters.
Numerically supremacy. Heard of the human wave during the Korean War? The army numbers are roughly maintained. And despite being a voluntary force, the PLA turn away people from enlisting. When push comes to shove, the army would take all necessary measures to fight, even to one’s death.




Veerappan Laxman, studied Mechanical Engineering
Answered 1h ago
Short Answer : Simple mathematics. China has around 1.2 billion people and considering the age distribution / gender ratio and average health of the Chinese, they can field around 100–120 million reserves potentially – this is counting only the men. If they bring in women of the same age group, the numbers could atleast increase by 80%. That means China has potential reserves of 100–200 million which is almost 2/3rds of the American population.


Numbers have a quality of their own is what Stalin said during WWII and it’s true. The PLA has proven that during the Korean war and elsewhere. Now they have access to the global average in training, great manufacturing capability to produce the required war supplies (small arms, ammunition, etc) and they would have the advantage of morale as they’re defending their homes – never underestimate that.


Add to this, China is one of the largest countries on Earth and most of their population is heavily concentrated along their coasts. So any land invasion from the West would stretch the supply lines too long and there would be real gain to the US or harm to the PLA. Invasion from the North or South is impossible since the countries located in these directiosn : Russia, India and others would not want to get involved in this issue and would probably be against the invasion in the first place.


So the only viable option would be to attack from the coast and the PRC/CCP/PLA has been preparing for that for decades. Till 15 years ago, the entire PLA and PRC defensive strategy was geared towards littoral defense – small to medium ships, coastal defense, short to medium range anti-ship/tactical cruise missiles and more. Same strategy as Iran. The defense is so crowded and numerous, the invading force would be whittle down by the swarm.


Add to this, in the last 15 years the PLA has been playing catch up quite nicely, through hook or crook or whatever other means they have to use. Now they have a decent surface navy and a strong submarine force. Not to mention, they have started creating their own overseas bases for logistics services and opening other battle theaters.


The US military cannot fight against such a foe – they couldn’t finish of a countries that were much smaller and had much lower populations like Vietnam, Iran, Afghanistan and so on. They had initial success but the middle and late games were exceedingly bad for them. In all such cases they were forcefully drained and had to pull out the troops.


The combined population and surface area of the 3 countries I mentioned, together count for less than 1/10th of the PRC’s. So you think the American military can succeed? This is not the period of colonialism when there was a distinct difference in military technology, political ideology and the natives were naive/foolish. You’re facing a modern military power who is similarly organized, determined and ruthless.
This is why the US or any other power can’t win decisively against powers like China and India despite the widely touted advantages they posses.