一旦开战，为什么美国打不赢中国？

Why can’t we defeat China in an open war?

一旦开战，为什么我们打不败中国？

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【美版知乎quora问答】

Dan Gall, worked at Canadian Armed Forces (1972-1997)
Answered Jan 24
China has a population of over 1 billion. They could potentially put 100 million men in the field and they also now have the production capability to equip them with modern weapons.
The US only has 350 million people, and might be able to manage 30 million in the military. Which means they would be outnumbered at least by three to one.

中国人口超过10亿，能派1亿人上战场，具备大规模生产现代化武器的能力。

美国只有3.5亿人，也许能组建起一支3000万人规模的军队。也就是说，敌我比例至少3:1。

The US, even with 400 plus ships doesn’t have the capability to invade China. When the US invaded Okinawa in 1945 they used over 10,000 ships to protect the troops and supply them for two months and there were far fewer US troops as well. No navy has that capability any longer.

即使派出400艘军舰，美国也无力入侵中国。1945年，美国打冲绳时，动用了超过1万艘船只，为军队准备了2个月的补给。再也没有哪个国家的海军拥有这样的能力了。

The Chinese modern weapons remove much of the advantage America has in quality and innovation, it simply cannot use firepower as it did in the Korean conflict to beat back the Chinese, the Chinese had just as much firepower now.

中国军队在质量和创新方面已经超过了美国。美国不能像朝鲜战争中那样光凭火力优势来击退中国军队，现在中国军队的火力同样很强大。

The US has 4300 nuclear weapons, but China has over 300. The Chinese ones are more than enough to take out most American population centres, while the Americans can also take out most Chinese ones, but a victory like that is not a victory at all, you get to claim you won from the ruins of your country.

美国有4300枚核武器，中国有超过300多枚。中国拥有的核武器足以摧毁美国大部分人口密集区。反之亦然。但这样的胜利不能称之为胜利，你能站在自己国家的废墟上宣称获胜（吗）。

Robert Sim, Studied in China, visits China on a regular basis.
Answered Jan 24
Economy. Like it or not, a good majority of the world’s manufactured products come from China. You fight with China, the global economy craters.
Numerically supremacy. Heard of the human wave during the Korean War? The army numbers are roughly maintained. And despite being a voluntary force, the PLA turn away people from enlisting. When push comes to shove, the army would take all necessary measures to fight, even to one’s death.

怕经济遭受损失啊。不管喜欢与否，世界上大部分商品来自中国。与中国开战，全球经济就会毁于一旦。

数量至上。听说过朝鲜战争的人海战术吗？危急时刻，军队会不惜一切代价去战斗，哪怕是付出生命的代价。

Veerappan Laxman, studied Mechanical Engineering
Answered 1h ago
Short Answer : Simple mathematics. China has around 1.2 billion people and considering the age distribution / gender ratio and average health of the Chinese, they can field around 100–120 million reserves potentially – this is counting only the men. If they bring in women of the same age group, the numbers could atleast increase by 80%. That means China has potential reserves of 100–200 million which is almost 2/3rds of the American population.

中国人多啊。中国人口约12亿，考虑到中国人的年龄分布、性别和平均健康状态，仅统计男性，中国可能有约1~1.2亿预备军。如果考虑同年龄组的女性，这个数据至少再加上80%。也就是说中国有1~2亿的预备军，几乎是美国人口的2/3。

Numbers have a quality of their own is what Stalin said during WWII and it’s true. The PLA has proven that during the Korean war and elsewhere. Now they have access to the global average in training, great manufacturing capability to produce the required war supplies (small arms, ammunition, etc) and they would have the advantage of morale as they’re defending their homes – never underestimate that.

二战时，斯大林说过：人多也是一个优势。这是真理。在朝鲜战争等战争中，解放军证明了这点。中国军队的训练水平上去了，惊人的生产能力，能迅速提供所需的战争物资(小型武器，弹药等)，不要低估中国人保家卫国的决心。

Add to this, China is one of the largest countries on Earth and most of their population is heavily concentrated along their coasts. So any land invasion from the West would stretch the supply lines too long and there would be real gain to the US or harm to the PLA. Invasion from the North or South is impossible since the countries located in these directiosn : Russia, India and others would not want to get involved in this issue and would probably be against the invasion in the first place.

除此之外，中国是世界上面积最大的国家之一，大部分人口集中在沿海城市。西方国家要是入侵，补给线会很长。北边有俄罗斯，无法从北方进攻，南边有印度，这些国家不希望卷入其中，可能一开始就会持反对态度。

So the only viable option would be to attack from the coast and the PRC/CCP/PLA has been preparing for that for decades. Till 15 years ago, the entire PLA and PRC defensive strategy was geared towards littoral defense – small to medium ships, coastal defense, short to medium range anti-ship/tactical cruise missiles and more. Same strategy as Iran. The defense is so crowded and numerous, the invading force would be whittle down by the swarm.

所以，唯一的选择就是从海上发动进攻，而解放军已经为此准备了数十年。直到15年前，解放军的防御战略都针对沿海防御——小中型舰艇、海防、短中程反舰、战术巡航导弹等等。伊朗战略也如此。如此强大有针对性的防御，入侵军队会遭受重大损失的

Add to this, in the last 15 years the PLA has been playing catch up quite nicely, through hook or crook or whatever other means they have to use. Now they have a decent surface navy and a strong submarine force. Not to mention, they have started creating their own overseas bases for logistics services and opening other battle theaters.

再者，过去15年，解放军一直尽其所能地迎头赶上。现在中国有了一支强大的潜艇部队，更别说他们开始建设自己的海外基地

The US military cannot fight against such a foe – they couldn’t finish of a countries that were much smaller and had much lower populations like Vietnam, Iran, Afghanistan and so on. They had initial success but the middle and late games were exceedingly bad for them. In all such cases they were forcefully drained and had to pull out the troops.

美军是不敢打这样的敌人的，连越南、伊朗、阿富汗等这样小得多的国家，都搞不定，怎么打中国。虽然战争初期取得了一定成功，但是中后期战况就不妙了。结果精疲力尽，不得不撤军。

The combined population and surface area of the 3 countries I mentioned, together count for less than 1/10th of the PRC’s. So you think the American military can succeed? This is not the period of colonialism when there was a distinct difference in military technology, political ideology and the natives were naive/foolish. You’re facing a modern military power who is similarly organized, determined and ruthless.
This is why the US or any other power can’t win decisively against powers like China and India despite the widely touted advantages they posses.

我所提及的三个国家，人口和面积加起来不到中国的1/10。

你认为美军打中国能成功吗？

现在不是殖民主义时期，当时军事技术差距巨大，意识形态存在严重分歧。

如今，你面对的是一支现代化军事力量，它纪律严明、意志坚定、无坚不摧。

所以，美国和其他大国无法击败中国和印度这样的大国。