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Quora: 你认为中国正处于崩溃边缘吗?

2018-01-22 | 分类:经济 | 评论:2人

Do you think China is on the verge of a collapse?



C.J. Hsu, PhD candidate Data Science, University of New South Wales (2019)
Updated Nov 29
Of course!
I can see western medias keep creating videos/books/articles on “The China Will Collapse in 1998/2000/2001/2002/2003/…2017”. If China is not on the edge of collapse, then why do western medias do this?
by the way I have made a Python script to help China collapse automatically since 1949 to the infinite future (or until stack overflow), which is “Sustainable collapse under Socialism with China’s characteristics”:

译文来源:Quora中文网 http://quora123.com/637.html




Cunwang Chen, works at Illinois Institute of Technology Chicago – Illinois Tech
Answered Nov 13
China: 7% economic growth and is on the verge of collapse.
US: 2% economic growth and is making US&A great again.
Trump: 4% growth is my aim and the sky is my limit.
Me: The irony is real.



Arman Siani, Engineer, Entrepreneur, Traveler
Answered Nov 13
No, and the YouTube video that is linked in the question makes questionable arguments to unsuccessfully argue its points.
I will attempt debunking each of their points one by one. In general, the problems that the Chinese economy faces as mentioned in the video are not inaccurate by itself. However, the flaw is in the fact that the video uses these problems to justify that claim that China is heading for a “crash” and that’s demonstratively not true.



At the outset, the narrator erroneously claims that China is the second largest economy in the world, while it is actually the largest economy in the world, even bigger than the EU. The narrator uses the nominal GDP fugures, but any economist knowing anything about GDP sizes would preferably use the purchasing power parity method to compare actual economic sizes of different countries, and in that measure, China is the largest economy in the world.
However, there are other problems with the claims made by the video as well.



Firstly, it claims that China’s workforce is ageing and its birthrates are low, which would cause it economic problems. While a shrinking population is certainly not a good sign, the fact is that China is actively using and investing in automation and robotics to improve individual worker productivity to offset any loss in production due to a shrinking work force. China is uniquely positioned for the new complex economy with its highly intelligent population (average IQ of China is among the highest in the world at around 104–106, as compared to 98–102 for Europe/USA, and that absolutely does matter). Further, China’s worker productivity at the present moment is less than 20 percent of that of an American worker, which means that it has a large room to improve and can do so just by using present technology, without having to invest in cutting edge futuristic technologies, which it is already doing anyways. Hence, I don’t see why the issue cannot be easily taken care of. Besides, the low birth rate is an artificial construct, unlike in Europe, where low birth rate is due to social changes and gender ideologies that discourage marriage and having many children. China is still a traditional society where marriage and family are valued, and with the lifting of restrictions on the “one child per family” policy, birth rates are bound to rise within a couple of years, especially in the villages.




Secondly, it talks about China’s “shadow or informal banking sector” and how an IMF report has called that out in one of its reports. A criticism by the IMF can hardly be regarded as “collapse” level event. The IMF routinely criticizes plenty of nations on their banking and statistical practices. Also, the shadow banking sector is not an inherent liability by itself, and it only eats away at potential economic growth and doesn’t take away from actual present economic growth. And in any case, legislative actions and reform initiatives, like the ones initiated by President Xi can conveniently take care of this.


Thirdly, the narrator of the video talks about how China’s GDP growth is slowing down at “only” 7% per year, and presents it as evidence of a “collapsing” China. While it is true that compared to previous years, China’s growth rate has slowed, you need to also consider the fact that the absolute amount of GDP added to the economy is enormous, simply because the size of the Chinese economy right now is enormous. China has a 22 trillion dollar economy with a 7 percent growth rate. At that size, its simply not humanly possible to maintain a 10–15 percent growth rate that China enjoyed previously, when its economy was smaller. And at that size, 7% cannot be described as “only” in any sense of the term. So, again, the narrator fails at convincing listeners of her point.


Fourthly, the video talks about tons of empty housing lying vacant aka the “ghost cities”. And I would concede that this is a pretty legitimate point, in that unused real estate stock is generally undesirable. But real estate places can be re-purposed for other uses, although, again, I concede that it’s easier said than done.
Fifthly, the narrator talks about China’s massive public debt. This point is legitimate. China’s debt is almost 300 percent of GDP. However, the debt is domestically held, and coupled with the fact that the government has complete control of the currency and enormous control of the economy, this should be manageable. However, the government must act, because this level of debt is not very healthy.



While China does face economic and social issues, which may or may not lead to financial crisis, that by itself doesn’t mean an “economic collapse” or even a “state collapse”. The Chinese government is too competent for that.
And I am not saying that China will not ever face economic crisis, because it may as well do so. But then again, I know of no major nation that hasn’t faced financial crises at various points in its history. Funnily, these Western analysts don’t predict those nations to “collapse”. This narrative that when economic crisis (regardless of how minor) strikes, people would “revolt” and* is a figment of Western imagination and shows a blatant lack of knowledge regarding Chinese culture and society.



China as a nation rose from the ruins of WW2 to the world’s largest economy and a superpower, lifting more than half a billion people out of poverty within a period of 3 decades. Anyone who under-estimates the CCP or the Chinese gov*ents would be mistaken by a huge margin.
So, China would be fine.



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已有 2 位网友发表了一针见血的评论,你还等什么?


  1. 中国强
    Post:2018/01/22 23:34:36


  2. wing
    Post:2018/02/11 20:36:44