当前位置:首页 > 经济 > 正文内容

Quora: 你认为中国正处于崩溃边缘吗?

2018-01-22 | 分类:经济 | 评论:2人

Do you think China is on the verge of a collapse?

你认为中国正处于崩溃边缘吗?

【美版知乎quora问答】

C.J. Hsu, PhD candidate Data Science, University of New South Wales (2019)
Updated Nov 29
Of course!
I can see western medias keep creating videos/books/articles on “The China Will Collapse in 1998/2000/2001/2002/2003/…2017”. If China is not on the edge of collapse, then why do western medias do this?
by the way I have made a Python script to help China collapse automatically since 1949 to the infinite future (or until stack overflow), which is “Sustainable collapse under Socialism with China’s characteristics”:

译文来源:Quora中文网 http://quora123.com/637.html

当然了,我能看到西方媒体一直在创建关于“中国即将在1998/2000/2001/2002/2003/…2017年崩溃”的视频、书籍、文章,如果中国不是处于崩溃边缘,为什么西方媒体要这么做呢?

另外,我做了个Python脚本,帮助中国从1949年以后自动无限崩溃到未来,这就是“中国特色社会主义可持续崩溃”:

 

Cunwang Chen, works at Illinois Institute of Technology Chicago – Illinois Tech
Answered Nov 13
China: 7% economic growth and is on the verge of collapse.
US: 2% economic growth and is making US&A great again.
Trump: 4% growth is my aim and the sky is my limit.
Me: The irony is real.

中国:7%的经济增长,正处于崩溃边缘
美国:2%的经济增长,让美国再次伟大。
川普:4%的增长是我的目标,天空才是我的极限。
我:真讽刺。

 

Arman Siani, Engineer, Entrepreneur, Traveler
Answered Nov 13
No, and the YouTube video that is linked in the question makes questionable arguments to unsuccessfully argue its points.
I will attempt debunking each of their points one by one. In general, the problems that the Chinese economy faces as mentioned in the video are not inaccurate by itself. However, the flaw is in the fact that the video uses these problems to justify that claim that China is heading for a “crash” and that’s demonstratively not true.

不认为

我尝试逐一戳破他们的每一个观点。总而言之,视频中提到的中国经济所面临的问题本身并非错的,但错误在于视频利用这些问题举证宣称中国正走向“崩溃”,这显然不是事实。

At the outset, the narrator erroneously claims that China is the second largest economy in the world, while it is actually the largest economy in the world, even bigger than the EU. The narrator uses the nominal GDP fugures, but any economist knowing anything about GDP sizes would preferably use the purchasing power parity method to compare actual economic sizes of different countries, and in that measure, China is the largest economy in the world.
However, there are other problems with the claims made by the video as well.

首先,旁白错误地宣称中国是世界第二大经济体,而它实际上是第一大经济体,规模甚至比欧盟更大。旁白用的数据是名义GDP,但经济学家都知道GDP最好用购买力平价的比较衡量来不同国家的经济规模。而这方面,中国是世界上最大的经济体。

然而,视频还存在其他问题。

Firstly, it claims that China’s workforce is ageing and its birthrates are low, which would cause it economic problems. While a shrinking population is certainly not a good sign, the fact is that China is actively using and investing in automation and robotics to improve individual worker productivity to offset any loss in production due to a shrinking work force. China is uniquely positioned for the new complex economy with its highly intelligent population (average IQ of China is among the highest in the world at around 104–106, as compared to 98–102 for Europe/USA, and that absolutely does matter). Further, China’s worker productivity at the present moment is less than 20 percent of that of an American worker, which means that it has a large room to improve and can do so just by using present technology, without having to invest in cutting edge futuristic technologies, which it is already doing anyways. Hence, I don’t see why the issue cannot be easily taken care of. Besides, the low birth rate is an artificial construct, unlike in Europe, where low birth rate is due to social changes and gender ideologies that discourage marriage and having many children. China is still a traditional society where marriage and family are valued, and with the lifting of restrictions on the “one child per family” policy, birth rates are bound to rise within a couple of years, especially in the villages.

首先,视频说中国劳动力正在老化,出生率很低,这会导致经济问题。人口减少并非好迹象,事实上,中国正积极发展自动化和集资人技术,以提高个体工人生产率,以抵消劳动力减少造成的损失。中国是一个拥有高智商人口的国家,很独特地被定位为新型复杂经济体(中国是平均智商最高的国家之一,约104~106,而欧美的98~102,这很重要)。

另外,中国当下的工人生产力还达不到美国工人的20%,也就是说它还有很大的提升空间,而且不用通过投资未来尖端技术,就可以通过目前的技术做到。

此外,低生产率是人为建构,不像欧洲的低生产率是因为社会改变、性别意识形态阻碍了婚姻和多生孩子。中国仍是一个传统社会,重视家庭和婚姻,随着独生子女政策的结束,出生率在几年内必然上升,尤其是农村地区。

Secondly, it talks about China’s “shadow or informal banking sector” and how an IMF report has called that out in one of its reports. A criticism by the IMF can hardly be regarded as “collapse” level event. The IMF routinely criticizes plenty of nations on their banking and statistical practices. Also, the shadow banking sector is not an inherent liability by itself, and it only eats away at potential economic growth and doesn’t take away from actual present economic growth. And in any case, legislative actions and reform initiatives, like the ones initiated by President Xi can conveniently take care of this.

第二,它提到了中国“影子或非正规银行部门”,以及国际货币基金组织(IMF)在一份报告中提到了这点。IMF的批评很难被当成“崩溃”级别的事件。IMF经常批评许多国家的银行。另外,影子银行本身并非固有责任,它只会侵蚀潜在的经济增长,而不会脱离实际的经济增长。在任何情况下,立法行动和改革举措,都能很好地解决这一问题。

Thirdly, the narrator of the video talks about how China’s GDP growth is slowing down at “only” 7% per year, and presents it as evidence of a “collapsing” China. While it is true that compared to previous years, China’s growth rate has slowed, you need to also consider the fact that the absolute amount of GDP added to the economy is enormous, simply because the size of the Chinese economy right now is enormous. China has a 22 trillion dollar economy with a 7 percent growth rate. At that size, its simply not humanly possible to maintain a 10–15 percent growth rate that China enjoyed previously, when its economy was smaller. And at that size, 7% cannot be described as “only” in any sense of the term. So, again, the narrator fails at convincing listeners of her point.

第三,旁白说中国GDP增长如何慢下来,仅7%每年,并将其当成中国“崩溃”的证据。与前一年相比,中国经济增长的确放缓了,但你需要考虑一个事实,即GDP的绝对增长量是巨大的,毕竟中国经济规模庞大。中国经济规模约为22万亿美元,增长率为7%,在这种规模下,中国要保持从前规模较小时的10~15%增长率,那不可能。如此规模下,7%不能说成“只有”。所以旁白不能让听众信服其观点。

Fourthly, the video talks about tons of empty housing lying vacant aka the “ghost cities”. And I would concede that this is a pretty legitimate point, in that unused real estate stock is generally undesirable. But real estate places can be re-purposed for other uses, although, again, I concede that it’s easier said than done.
Fifthly, the narrator talks about China’s massive public debt. This point is legitimate. China’s debt is almost 300 percent of GDP. However, the debt is domestically held, and coupled with the fact that the government has complete control of the currency and enormous control of the economy, this should be manageable. However, the government must act, because this level of debt is not very healthy.

第四,视频说中国有空房又名“鬼城”,我承认这是相当合理的观点。但是,房地产市场可以为其他用途而重新规划,不过,我也承认说起来容易做起来难。

第五,旁白说到中国庞大的公共债务。这一点合理,中国的债务几乎是GDP的300%,然而债务是国内持有债务,加上政府完全控制了货币,大大地掌控了经济。这点应该是好办的。不过还是必须采取行动,这种级别的债务并不健康。

While China does face economic and social issues, which may or may not lead to financial crisis, that by itself doesn’t mean an “economic collapse” or even a “state collapse”. The Chinese government is too competent for that.
And I am not saying that China will not ever face economic crisis, because it may as well do so. But then again, I know of no major nation that hasn’t faced financial crises at various points in its history. Funnily, these Western analysts don’t predict those nations to “collapse”. This narrative that when economic crisis (regardless of how minor) strikes, people would “revolt” and* is a figment of Western imagination and shows a blatant lack of knowledge regarding Chinese culture and society.

虽然中国的确面临经济和社会问题,这些可能或不会导致经济问题,但不意味着“经济崩溃”或“国家崩溃”,对此中国很有能力。

并不是说中国永远不会出现经济危机,或许也会有吧。话说回来,没有哪个大国不在其历史上的各个时段出现经济危机的。有趣的是,这些西方分析认识并没有预测这些国家会“崩溃”。西方构想当经济危机罢工时,人们会“造反”、这显然显示了他们对中国文化和社会的无知。

China as a nation rose from the ruins of WW2 to the world’s largest economy and a superpower, lifting more than half a billion people out of poverty within a period of 3 decades. Anyone who under-estimates the CCP or the Chinese gov*ents would be mistaken by a huge margin.
So, China would be fine.

中国从二战的废墟中崛起,到世界第一大经济体和强国,在30年的时间内使5亿多人脱贫。任何低估中国的都会被这一巨大的差距误导。所以,中国很好。

来源:Quora中文网(微信号/QQ号:),转载请注明出处和链接!

  • 评论:(2)

已有 2 位网友发表了一针见血的评论,你还等什么?

◎欢迎参与讨论,我的微信公众号是:santaihu

  1. 中国强
    Post:2018/01/22 23:34:36

    其实已经崩溃了,我们刚发明了量子计算机就可以证明了!

  2. wing
    Post:2018/02/11 20:36:44

    让7亿多人脱贫就是一件非常难得事情,先脱贫,后致富经,慢慢来。

站内搜索