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印度会成为超级大国吗?

2018-01-01 | 分类:军事 | 评论:2人

Will India ever become a superpower?

印度会成为超级大国吗?

【美版知乎quora问答】

Igor Markov, Been there done that.
Updated Dec 8, 2015 · Featured on Slate and Quartz
Originally Answered: Will India become a global superpower by 2050? If yes, how?
This is possible but not at all easy. For the sake of long-term analysis, let’s neglect some of India’s current weaknesses which may get resolved in 10-20 years, but focus on fundamentals and their manifestations.

译文来源:Quora中文网 http://quora123.com/585.html

原题:印度会在2050年成为全球超级大国吗?怎么做?

可能,但并非易事。从长远分析,忽略目前印度的一些缺点,这些缺点无法在10~20年内解决,关注基本原理和表现。

India’s economy is projected to reach the #3 spot by 2020 (by at least some analysts and metrics; it’s already there by PPP), surpassing Japan, and trailing only China (#1) and the US (#2). In view of China’s recent economic troubles and suspicious accounting, China’s ascent is in doubt, but India’s upward path seems more certain (say, by 2030), as its excesses have been smaller so far. Of course, India’s economy must become more robust and structurally sound, while the legal system must strengthen as well, and corruption must be addressed. Going forward, India has huge potential due to its large population, a long-standing tradition of democracy and stable government system with non-violent transitions, convenient location for trade, proximity to major oil exporters, decent standing in the world, a large English-speaking population, massive engineering education that is gradually improving in quality, and a system of R&D institutions. India’s current weakness is limited global reach. In particular, the BRICS group is looking less and less promising due to significant divergence between its members (some are in deep recession, some need oil to be expensive, while others prefer cheap oil, etc). However, G20 has been increasingly relevant. Should India and China reach the status of developed economies (perhaps in 20 years), they may be added to the G7 forum. In general, faster development of the world economy should help developing countries to catch up, but in a slower world economy the developed countries will preserve their lead.

印度经济

印度经济会在2020年时成为世界第三大经济体(至少根据一些分析师和指标;购买力平价已排行第三),赶超日本,仅次于中国和美国。

鉴于中国近期的经济困境和可疑的统计,中国崛起要打个问号。印度崛起之路更为板上钉钉(比如2030年)。当然,印度经济更强劲、结构更强健,同时加强法律体系,解决腐败问题。

展望未来,印度潜力巨大,这是因为:印度人口庞大、长期的民主传统、非暴力更替的稳定政府制度、有利的贸易位置、靠近主要石油出口国、体面地站在世界上、庞大的英语人口、质量逐渐改进的庞大的工程教育、高效的研发机构体系。

印度当前的弱点是全球覆盖有限,由于成员国间的分歧,金砖国家的前景越来越渺茫。G20变得越来越重要。如果中国和印度能达到发达国家的经济地位(或许20年内),可能会加入G7论坛。

总而言之,世界经济的快速发展有助于发展中国家迎头赶上。世界经济放缓的情况下,发达国家将保持领先。

India’s military is ranked #4 in 2015 by Global Firepower after the US, Russia and China, and followed by the UK. While this is unlikely to change by 2020, I expect Russia to drop out from the top three in 10-20 years, due to the effects of protracted financial crisis, economic stagnation, and deteriorating demographics. In contrast, both India and the UK are primed to significantly increase their military strength by 2025. With two new super-carriers, the UK will have a stronger Navy (currently, UK’s Navy is considered slightly weaker than Indian). The recently-announced massive new purchase program for strike aircraft can make the UK Air Force stronger as well (it is currently judged weaker than India’s, and is a lot smaller). India’s initial bet on Russian fifth-gen fighters (PAK FA) has gone sour. The supersonic cruise missile Brahmos jointly developed by India and Russia isn’t deployed by Russia for some reason (despite its availability) and does not have direct analogues in NATO countries, while NATO can technically develop one. This raises doubts about the operational effectiveness of this primarily-anti-ship missile.

2015年【印度军事】在《全球火力》排行排第4,仅此美、俄、中、英。这点2020年可能不会改变。我预计因为长期的金融危机、经济停滞和人口结构的日益恶化,俄罗斯在未来10~20年内被挤出前三名。

相比之下,印度、英国都准备在2025年前显著增强军事实力。英国有两艘超级航母,将拥有一只更强大的海军(目前英国海军实力略低于印度)。最近宣布的大型攻击型飞机采购计划,也能增强英国空军实力(据判断它目前比印度空军更弱,规模更小)。

印度对俄罗斯五代机(PAK FA)的初步押注已经失败。由印俄共同研发的超音速巡航导弹“布拉莫斯”,由于某些原因,俄罗斯并没有部署(尽管它具有可用性),在北约国家也没有类似的导弹,而北约是有技术开发的。这使人们对这种初级反舰导弹的作战效能产生怀疑。

Even today, India cannot project power away from its borders nearly as efficiently as the UK can (due to UK’s bases and close defense relations with NATO).And India has no military alliences like NATO and the Five Eyes. India is likely to remain the #4 military power through 2030, but if Russia is replaced by the UK in the top 3, this can increase India’s significance because the UK is a part of the already-strong NATO. It’s really hard to guess the military developments by 2050, but the NATO militaries will clearly become increasingly unmanned, negating population handicaps and leveraging new technology, while other countries are likely to lag behind. The extent of this trend will be determined by specific technology developments and economic health of the countries involved.

即使现在,印度也不能像英国那样,有效地将军队部署在边境之外(由于英国的军事基地和与北约的密切防务关系)。印度也没有像北约和五眼联盟这样的军师盟友。

印度可能在2030年继续保持第四军事强国的地位,如果俄罗斯的前三地位被英国取代,将增加印度的重要性。英国是已经强大的北约的一部分。

真的很难猜测2050年的军事发展,北约的军事能力很明显越来越无人驾驭。

India’s diplomatic standing and international reach. India has been uninvolved in many international conflicts and also has relatively little political influence on other countries (despite being the third largest contributor to UN Peacekeeping Forces worldwide). This may start changing as India’s economy and international trade grow. The big diplomatic prize would be an enhanced status in the UN. India is arguing for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council, but any UN SC reform seems impossible in the next five years. Some changes may become realistic by 2025, especially after major political upheavals that some predict for this timeframe. A UN reform is looking more likely by 2050, especially if 20 years pass without major conflicts. Here, the key for India is to wisely navigate between other world powers, make good bets, avoid major pitfalls, while contributing to the world peace in essential and unique ways. The current conflict with Pakistan is a serious shackle, as it confines India to the status of a regional power and limits India’s support among Muslim nations (India’s collaboration with Israel on defense matters is another issue for Muslim nations).

【印度外交地位和国际影响力】

印度并没有参与国际冲突,对其他国家的影响力也相对较小(尽管它是联合国维和部队全球第三大捐助国)。随着印度经济和国际贸易的增长,这种情况开始改变。

最大的外交嘉奖将是在联合国地位的提高。印度正主张获得联合国安理会的永久席位,但未来5年内,联合国不可能有任何改革。

2025年,一些变化或许会成真,特别是一段时间后某些人预测的一些政治动荡之后。2050年联合国可能会进行改革,尤其是如果20年内都没有重大冲突的话。

印度关键是要明智地穿行于世界各大国之间,做出正确选择,避免陷阱,同时以重要独特的方式对世界和平做出贡献。目前与巴基斯坦的冲突是一个严重的束缚,因为它将限制印度成为地区大国,限制印度获得穆斯林国家的支持(印度与以色列在国防上的合作是MSL国家的令一个问题)。

The rule of three. I’d like to postulate that there can be at most three global superpowers on this planet (with more comparable powers, each will hold too little sway to count as a superpower). There is little doubt that the US will remain a superpower, even if China’s economy becomes larger. As of 2025, the EU will likely become the second global superpower, and some may argue that it already is (the EU economy is currently larger than the US economy, the EU definitely has global political, diplomatic and economy-related reach, while enjoying two seats on the UN Security Council, etc). It is not clear if there will be a third superpower, especially that the US and the EU are so tightly allied in most regards. But the main candidates are China and India (Russia’s economy is way too small, and its global reach has significantly shrunk in 2014-2015 due to political adventurism and bad bets, while the overall trajectory remains negative). Both China and India have limited global reach today, and both are trying to reach the status of developed economies. Both need to provide better education to their citizens, improve their legal/enforcement systems and cut down corruption. Both have questionable human-rights records, although India seems in a better shape. Both have thorny relations with some of their neighbors that are unlikely to get resolved. China has a head start on the economy size, while India has a head start on the political system. In the short-term, economy is more tangible, but in the long term the political system is at least as important (as this is critical to fixing the legal system, setting up effective law enforcement, and rooting out corruption).
So, will China or India be the third superpower? Or neither?
140.2k Views · 3,291 Upvotes · Answer requested by Kushagra Sharma

【三强鼎立理论】

我假设世界上最多有三个超级大国(有很多类似的大国,不会被当成超级大国)。毫无疑问,即使中国经济变得更强大,美国也将一直是超级大国。

2025年,欧盟可能成为第二超级大国,一些人可能会说,它已经是了(欧盟经济大于美国,欧盟在全球政治、外交和经济上都有影响力,还拥有联合国两个永久席位等等)。

尚不清楚是否会有第三个超级大国,尤其是美国和欧盟在很多方面都紧密联系的情况下。但主要候选国是印度和中国(俄罗斯经济规模太小,由于政治冒险主义和糟糕的押注,其全球影响力在2014~2015年明显萎缩,整体发展轨迹仍处于负面状态)。

中印的影响力目前还有限,两国都试图达到发达经济体的地位。两个国家都想为本国公民提供更好的教育,改善法律体系,减少腐败。两国都与邻国有不太可能解决的棘手问题。

中国经济规模领先,而印度在政治体系上领先。短期时间内,经济更切合实际,长远看来,政治体系至少同样重要(对修复法律体系、建立有效执法、铲除腐败等至关重要)。

中国,或者印度会成为第三个超级大国吗?或许不会?

 

 

Rishabh Raj Jha, Indian by birth.
Answered Jul 2
Question –
Will India ever become a superpower ?
Answer-
As long as the reservation system prevails
NO
If reservation system ends
MAY BE
If everyone does their own job instead of putting their nose in someone else’s business
SURELY YES

印度会成为超级大国吗?
只要有少数族群预留制,就不会。
预留制结束,可能。
如果每个人只做自己的工作,而不是干涉别人的事情,那肯定会。

 

Ernest W. Adams, keen but amateur observer of geopolitics.
Answered Jan 28, 2016
Being a superpower means being able to project force just about anywhere. I am inclined to think that, unless its rivalry with China gets out of hand, India won’t go down that road. The problem isn’t a lack of ability or resources, but a question of where India’s resources are best spent. Right now, India has no need for seven or eight aircraft carrier battle groups. It has other, better things to do with its money.

成为超级大国,意味着能将军队部署在任何地方。
我倾向于认为,除非印度与中国的竞争失控,印度不会走向这条路。
问题不在于缺乏能力或资源,而是印度的资源最佳的使用位置。
目前,印度不需要7/8支航母战斗群,其他地方更需要资金。

来源:Quora中文网(微信号/QQ号:),转载请注明出处和链接!

  • 评论:(2)

已有 2 位网友发表了一针见血的评论,你还等什么?

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  1. 殺蠻夷
    Post:2018/01/01 15:11:35

    已經是了,快讓莫迪勸米國投降。米國人全做達利特,永生永世給三哥當奴隸。

  2. jay
    Post:2018/05/22 13:04:19

    不要拿印度和中国比,丢不起这人!!

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