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到2050年哪个国家会领先,印度还是中国?

2017-12-30 | 分类:经济 | 评论:5人

Which country – India or China will be ahead by 2050?

到2050年,哪个国家会领先,印度还是中国?

资料图

美版知乎Quora问答

Winston
Answered Nov 3, 2016

Look at the past, present and then predict the future.

In the past, was there any time in history India was prosperous?

In the present, the growth rate of illiteracy, poverty at growth rate of 2@ each year.

Prediction: SUrely, India will maintain the leadership in poverty and illiteracy in the world by years 2050.

译文来源:Quora中文网 http://quora123.com/579.html

看看过去和现在,再预测将来

过去,印度历史上哪个阶段是繁荣的?

现在,看看印度的文盲率,印度的返贫率

预测:到2050年,印度的贫穷率和文盲率肯定会保持领先的

 

Partho Sarothi Paul
Answered Feb 26, 2015
India’s economic growth would be higher than China.
But China’s GDP(nominal) would be bigger than India.

印度经济增速会高于中国经济增速

但是中国名义GDP会比印度更高

 

Peter Flom, Independent statistical consultant for researchers in social, medical and behavioral sciences
Answered Jan 4, 2015
My view is that China is facing major problems in the coming decades and that it will have a hard time dealing with them all. These include:

1) Pollution
2) Flight of capital
3) Demographic problems as a result of the one-child rule (mainly, there will be a large number of people who are not of working age being supported by a small number of people who are – with “small” being relative to China)
4) Ethnic problems

I don’t know much about India but from the little I’ve read, India seems to have problems 1 and 4 as well.

我的看法是,未来几十年,中国将面临严重问题,日子会不好过。

这些问题包括:

1、污染

2、资本外逃

3、之前独生子女政策导致的人口问题(主要是大量老年人口需要养)

4、民族问题

我对印度了解甚少,印度似乎只存在第1个和第4个问题。

 

Akbar Basha, former Retired Engineer
Answered Wed

Maybe China, because Chinese leaders do not deal with dirty politics, communal hatred, one party pulling the legs the other party etc. Chinese work for the progress of their nation. India surely can overtake Chine and become a winner in 2050, if Indian leaders feel sorry for having burnt & killed thousands of Sikhs, Muslims, Christians, Dalits and whatever bad has happened in the past and divert their attention towards nation building task.

也许中国领先吧

中国人为推动国家进步而努力工作

如果印度领导人为过去数以千计锡克教徒、基督徒、达利特和穆斯林被烧死而道歉,并把人们的注意力转移到国家建设的重任上,那么到2050年印度肯定能超过中国而成为赢家。

 

Ashwin Singh, Chillaxing since 1990
Answered Jan 5, 2015
Thanks for asking

According to the report of US intelligence published in the article of TOI India to outpace China by 2030: US intelligence report – The Times of India
India’s growth is accelerating and China’s is decelerating. The current economic gap would be closer by 2030. So, by 2050 India will be much ahead of China.

根据印度时报报道,美国情报机构的报告显示,到2030年,印度发展速度将超过中国

印度发展速度在加快,中国在放慢。

到2030年,当前中印经济差距将会缩小。

到2050年,印度会大幅领先中国

 

Randy McDonald, Torontonian and loving it
Answered Jan 5, 2015
At this stage, 35 years before the target date, it’s really quite impossible to judge which country will be ahead since each country has its advantages and disadvantages. China right now is substantially more globalized than India, but is this viable? India is locked into a nuclear cold war with Pakistan over Kashmir, but could this end? Both countries have their demographic issues, but can any be dealt with? (The prospect of immigration into China, even large-scale immigration, can’t be excluded. The same could be said of immigration into India.)

My feeling is that, absent any catastrophe, India and China will be approximately in the same range, be powers of roughly the same order of magnitude. It’s certainly imaginable that India might catch up to China if the latter has a growth slowdown, but catch-up growth is not inevitable.

现阶段,离2050年还有35年呢,要判断到时候哪个国家领先,几乎是不可能的。

毕竟两国各有优劣之处

目前,中国全球化比印度更充分,不过这可持续吗?

印度与巴基斯坦就克什米尔而陷入核冷战中,这个冷战会结束吗?

中印两国都面临人口问题,能解决吗?

我的感觉是,如果不发生大灾难,印度和中国到时候会旗鼓相当。

如果中国增速放缓,可以想象印度也许能赶上中国

 

Jack Xia, lives in China
Answered Wed

Althought I’m a Chinese,I have to accept the truth that India is stronger than China. In fact India has many advantages that China doesn’t have, such as the greatest and most important de*cy. As for economic development prospects , you can look at the recent report of IMF about India’s economy to grow faster than China.

Human Resources

1.India has more young people than China.

2.Largest English speaking population in the world.

3.People considered as very good IQ. Nearly 40% of NASA scientists are Indian.

Industry

India is stronger than China in some aspects, such as IT, medical aviation industry,film industry.

China has high GDP,better infrastructure,better army is lie.*** I am sure that India will rule the future rather than China.

虽然我是中国人,但是不得不接受印度比中国更强大的事实(??)

其实,印度有很多中国不具备的优势

至于经济发展前景,可以参考国际货币基金组织(IMF)最近的报告,报告说印度经济增速快于中国

人力资源:

1、印度年轻人口比和中国更多

2、印度英语人口世界第一

3、印度人的智商高,美国宇航局40%的科学家是印度人

产业

印度某些方面比中国更强。比如IT业、医药业,电影业

中国GDP更高,基础设施更发达。

可以肯定,主宰未来的会是印度,不会是中国

来源:Quora中文网(微信号/QQ号:),转载请注明出处和链接!

  • 评论:(5)

已有 5 位网友发表了一针见血的评论,你还等什么?

◎欢迎参与讨论,我的微信公众号是:santaihu

  1. 殺蠻夷
    Post:2017/12/30 09:30:22

    觀點都很正確,好!

  2. 五美分
    Post:2017/12/31 09:36:13

    从几个方面分析,不保证全面!
    第一,人口结构,2050年,印度人口红利占优势,第一人口大国不姓中了!
    第二,政治稳定,我认为中国完胜,最符合自己的政治制度才是最好的政治制度!中国几千年,其实什么都不信,只遵从实用主义,所以,未来一定是不断改革,但是会平稳过度!印度民主自由,普世价值,其实几十年都没有和印度兼容,硬件牛逼,系统不兼容!
    第三,教育科研,不管我们问题有多可怕,遥遥领先是必然的,中国政府其实最喜欢的是,基建,教育,开会……

    • 随便谈谈
      Post:2017/12/31 12:55:33

      第一点:关于人口红利,并不是年轻人口多就是有人口红利,中国之所以有人口红利,主要原因是强制的九年义务教育,绝大多数适龄人口都受到了相当程度的教育,年轻人口如果不能转化为工业化生产的劳动力并不能形成所谓的人口红利。
      第二点:英语普及,英语普及程度和经济发展并没有直接关系,不信我们可以看看非洲那些英语体系的国家,再看看公认英语不好的日本。
      第三点:对于未来的发展潜力,我认为未来科技的重心在于生物科技,能源科技,新材料科技,以及新信息技术科技,在全球来看在这几个方面能跟中国一战的只有美国。印度???????印度在这几个科技领域有什么发展?????别跟我说什么医药?他们并不研发医药,他们只是给西方做人体实验来换取到了医药的专利授权而已。能源?印度能源自给率是多少心里没点数?新材料科技?印度在材料方面的投入的研发就别提了。新信息技术科技??????世界上有完整信息技术科技树的只有中美。印度?????安心做码农吧,哦不好意思,就算比码农人数印度人也不占多。至于你说美国的印度裔???那是美国人,不是印度人。

  3. 姚英杰
    Post:2018/01/07 19:47:17

    上面列举的印度的发展优势不是今天才发现的,印度独立后这些优势就存在。到如今存在了70年了。按说早该超过中国了。实际情况是七十年前中国经济落后印度很多,一直落后了几十年。不知道什么动力能让印度暴发?

  4. Alan
    Post:2018/02/01 09:44:49

    我一直在强调印度不容小觑,但印度想要2050年超越中国,可以明确的说是不可能的,即使是印度超越中国成为第一人口大国,难道说人口就可以决定一切吗,人口都可以转换成红利吗?

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