到2050年哪个国家会领先，印度还是中国？

Which country – India or China will be ahead by 2050?

到2050年，哪个国家会领先，印度还是中国？

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美版知乎Quora问答

Winston

Look at the past, present and then predict the future.

In the past, was there any time in history India was prosperous?

In the present, the growth rate of illiteracy, poverty at growth rate of 2@ each year.

Prediction: SUrely, India will maintain the leadership in poverty and illiteracy in the world by years 2050.

看看过去和现在，再预测将来

过去，印度历史上哪个阶段是繁荣的？

现在，看看印度的文盲率，印度的返贫率

预测：到2050年，印度的贫穷率和文盲率肯定会保持领先的

Partho Sarothi Paul
India’s economic growth would be higher than China.
But China’s GDP(nominal) would be bigger than India.

印度经济增速会高于中国经济增速

但是中国名义GDP会比印度更高

Akbar Basha, former Retired Engineer

Maybe China, because Chinese leaders do not deal with dirty politics, communal hatred, one party pulling the legs the other party etc. Chinese work for the progress of their nation. India surely can overtake Chine and become a winner in 2050, if Indian leaders feel sorry for having burnt & killed thousands of Sikhs, Muslims, Christians, Dalits and whatever bad has happened in the past and divert their attention towards nation building task.

也许中国领先吧

中国人为推动国家进步而努力工作

如果印度领导人为过去数以千计锡克教徒、基督徒、达利特被烧死而道歉，并把人们的注意力转移到国家建设的重任上，那么到2050年印度肯定能超过中国而成为赢家。

Ashwin Singh, Chillaxing since 1990
Thanks for asking

According to the report of US intelligence published in the article of TOI India to outpace China by 2030: US intelligence report – The Times of India
India’s growth is accelerating and China’s is decelerating. The current economic gap would be closer by 2030. So, by 2050 India will be much ahead of China.

根据印度时报报道，美国情报机构的报告显示，到2030年，印度发展速度将超过中国

印度发展速度在加快，中国在放慢。

到2030年，当前中印经济差距将会缩小。

到2050年，印度会大幅领先中国

Randy McDonald, Torontonian and loving it
At this stage, 35 years before the target date, it’s really quite impossible to judge which country will be ahead since each country has its advantages and disadvantages. China right now is substantially more globalized than India, but is this viable? India is locked into a nuclear cold war with Pakistan over Kashmir, but could this end? Both countries have their demographic issues, but can any be dealt with? (The prospect of immigration into China, even large-scale immigration, can’t be excluded. The same could be said of immigration into India.)

My feeling is that, absent any catastrophe, India and China will be approximately in the same range, be powers of roughly the same order of magnitude. It’s certainly imaginable that India might catch up to China if the latter has a growth slowdown, but catch-up growth is not inevitable.

现阶段，离2050年还有35年呢，要判断到时候哪个国家领先，几乎是不可能的。

毕竟两国各有优劣之处

目前，中国全球化比印度更充分，不过这可持续吗？

印度与巴基斯坦就克什米尔而陷入核冷战中，这个冷战会结束吗？

中印两国都面临人口问题，能解决吗？

我的感觉是，如果不发生大灾难，印度和中国到时候会旗鼓相当。

如果中国增速放缓，可以想象印度也许能赶上中国

Jack Xia, lives in China

Althought I’m a Chinese,I have to accept the truth that India is stronger than China. In fact India has many advantages that China doesn’t have, such as the greatest and most important de*cy. As for economic development prospects , you can look at the recent report of IMF about India’s economy to grow faster than China.

Human Resources

1.India has more young people than China.

2.Largest English speaking population in the world.

3.People considered as very good IQ. Nearly 40% of NASA scientists are Indian.

Industry

India is stronger than China in some aspects, such as IT, medical aviation industry,film industry.

China has high GDP,better infrastructure,better army is lie.*** I am sure that India will rule the future rather than China.

虽然我是中国人，但是不得不接受印度比中国更强大的事实（？？）

其实，印度有很多中国不具备的优势

至于经济发展前景，可以参考国际货币基金组织（IMF）最近的报告，报告说印度经济增速快于中国

人力资源：

1、印度年轻人口比和中国更多

2、印度英语人口世界第一

3、印度人的智商高，美国宇航局40%的科学家是印度人

产业

印度某些方面比中国更强。比如IT业、医药业，电影业

中国GDP更高，基础设施更发达。

可以肯定，主宰未来的会是印度，不会是中国